Semi-parametric estimation of the strategic goods (OPEC oil price)

In the global economy, crude oil is among the most important strategic goods that affects the performance of local and international markets. Prediction of the oil price has always been an important challenging topic in the global economy and producers and consumers have constantly been trying to improve their roll in the oil price changes and for many years OPEC has been one of the key players in this field of economy. Oil is considered as one of the most important financial resources for providing the budget of the OPEC country members. Oil price fluctuations, is one of the major causes of many economical crises among these countries. By applying the statistical models one can improve the performance of the oil price prediction dramatically and obtain results with less errors and higher precision. Therefore, in this paper, the nonlinear autoregressive model with a semi-parametric method is implemented to predict the oil price.